Current Annual Outcome Statement

Year-end 30 September 2025

For all loans classified under the following risk categories:
Band 1 2024-2025 Anticipated 2024-2025 Actual
Default Rate 0.38% 0.27%
Rate of Return 9.86% 9.91%
Band 2 2024-2025 Anticipated 2024-2025 Actual
Default Rate 0.43% 0.00%
Rate of Return 13.30% 13.25%

MTC operates an APR-based banding, based on the anticipated risk profile associated with the provision of a loan. Allowing Lenders with different risk parameters and return requirements to participate across a variety of Products. To accommodate the differing investor risk & return appetites, each loan is ‘banded’ into APR-based, risk-priced investments: Band 1(49.9% APR), Band 2 (59% APR).

Band 1 provides a lower level of risk, offering the lowest return rate, and is provided to borrowers who provide a homeowner guarantor for loan amounts between £2,000 and £2,500.

Band 2 presents a higher level of risk with the highest risk category and is provided to both borrowers and guarantors whose residency status is rented accommodation and who are looking for loan amounts between £2,000 and £5,000.

The rate of return shown is on 30 September 2025 before tax and assuming reinvestment of capital throughout the term. The actual rate of return may be lower than anticipated if the capital is not immediately reinvested throughout the term and all of the loan repayments are not made on time or in full. Previous returns can be no guarantee of future returns; more information on expected returns is available to view below in Appendix 2.

2025-2026 Forecast
Band 1 2025-2026 Anticipated
Default Rate 0.67%
Rate of Return 9.88%
Band 2 2025-2026 Anticipated
Default Rate 0.53%
Rate of Return 13.19%

A summary of the assumptions used to determine the expected future default rates is available to view below in Appendix 1.

Important: Forecast default rates should not be relied upon solely as an indicator of future performance.

Appendix 1
Definition of a Default Rate:
We define our Default rate as the percentage of the capital amount provided since 2014 that has accumulated 6 months of contractual loan payments in arrears following our collection efforts.

The example below of a default rate is based on an annual capital amount lent of £10,000,000, of which £480,000 has defaulted (b / a = c):

  • (a) Capital Amount provided: £10,000,000
  • (b) Capital Amount Defaulted: £480,000
  • (c) Default Rate: 4.8%

Default rates will impact the rate of return for lenders. Please see how we calculate expected return rates below in Appendix 2

Forecasting for Default Rates & Assumptions

The assumptions to be used to calculate the next period’s expected default rate are as follows:

Capital Amount Outstanding at the beginning of the Reporting Period (a):
Capital Default Outstanding at the beginning of the Reporting Period (b):
Expected Capital Lending during the Period (c):
Projected Capital Default (d):
Projected Default Rate (e):

A working example of a forecasted default rate is below (b + d / a + c = e)

(a) Capital Amount Outstanding at the beginning of the Reporting Period:
£10,000,000
(b) Capital Default Outstanding at the beginning of the Reporting Period:
£500,000
(c) Expected Capital Lending during the Period:
£2,000,000
(d) Projected Capital Default:
£80,000
(e) Projected Default Rate:
4.83%

We calculate the existing capital amount provided (historically until now), as well as the amount defaulted over the same period. Then we forecast the capital lending for the next 12 months and project the amount we expect will default throughout this period. To do this, we consider the following:

  1. The previous 5 years’ loan performance data and a projection of future default rates
  2. Advancements in underwriting policy and procedural changes
  3. Advancements in collection policy and procedural changes, including the recent inclusion of automated payment links and payment by bank features
  4. The latest macroeconomic landscape and consideration for how this will impact borrowers and guarantors:

MTC’s 2025-2026 Macroeconomic Forecast:

Falling interest rates, leading to less financial pressure on guarantors and joint borrowers are likely to offset the remaining challenges faced by borrowers as the macroeconomic landscape remains largely unchanged over the coming year: Inflation to remain slightly above the 2% target set, and unemployment levels are expected to remain stagnant given the low growth projections.

Important: Forecast default rates should not be relied upon solely as an indicator of future performance.

Appendix 2
How we calculate the Expected Rate of Return & Assumptions:
The Expected Rate of Return is a calculation that assumes 100% of repayments are made by borrowers, less any amount of interest not repaid by the borrower.

Simply put, the Expected Rate of Return is the following calculation:

  • (a) Investment Amount (£): £100,000
  • (b) Investment Period: 12 Months
  • (c) Expected Return Rate: 8-10%
  • (d) Expected Return (£): £8,000 – £10,000

We would expect over a 12-month period a return of £8 – £10k on a £100,000 investment using an example return rate of between 8% – 10%. (c / a = d)

As explained above, the Expected Rates of Return account for the interest amount not repaid by borrowers. To provide an expected rate of return, Match the Cash forecasts the loan book delinquency that can impact the actual rate of return for the period. The assumption is there will be a rate of delinquency (arrears) that can be caused by several factors throughout a loan term, changes in borrowers’ circumstances (employment, marital status, health conditions, etc).

Important: Previous returns and past performance can be no guarantee of future returns.

Reasons why the actual return may differ from the Forecast Return:
The UK macroeconomic situation in the period being different to expected, which could impact borrowers either positively or negatively. Equally, the UK regulatory landscape in which Match the Cash operates could alter forecasted budgets either positively or negatively.